RISK MODELING ADVISORY WORKGROUP REPORT

The Risk Modeling Advisory Workgroup was formed pursuant to Assembly Bill 642 (Chapter 375, Statutes of 2021) to act in an advisory capacity to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection in consultation with the State Fire Marshal and the California Insurance Commissioner on wildfire risk modeling.

The Workgroup’s purpose is 1) to provide science-based insights and a review of relevant model attributes to enable CAL FIRE, in consultation with the State Fire Marshal and the Insurance Commissioner; 2) to make recommendations on understanding and modeling wildfire risk for a community and specific parcels within the local responsibility area or state responsibility area; and 3) to include a strategy to account for mitigating factors designed to reduce risk.

The Workgroup focused on modeling the risk to structures and communities. The Workgroup did not address the modeling of susceptibility to human life loss/injury risks, nor the second-order components such as economic, social and health impacts, ecological/biophysical effects, and compounding natural hazards. Additionally, this report does not attempt to address the use of catastrophe models in insurance pricing.

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